ISW: Real Negotiations Are Impossible

Russia is stalling for time.

Statements emanating from Moscow and Washington after U.S. President Donald Trump's phone call with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on May 19 showed that Russia has decided to further delay negotiations and is not ready to make any significant concessions. Unless this changes, such negotiations will not lead to a long and sustainable peace.

In this experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are convinced. The analysts have formulated a list of prerequisites necessary for truly effective negotiations on the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The first prerequisite for effective negotiations in ISW called Russia's refusal to abandon its scheme of dragging out negotiations and unwillingness to make any significant concessions to Ukraine. Otherwise, there is nothing to talk about a long-term, sustainable end to Russian aggression against Ukraine.

In addition, the analysts said, Russia must clearly recognize the legitimacy of Ukraine's president, government, and constitution, as well as Ukraine's sovereignty, in order to engage in meaningful, good-faith negotiations.

They recall that Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly falsely claimed that Zelensky is an illegitimate leader under Ukraine's constitution, and that all Ukrainian governments since 2014 have been as well However, Ukraine's constitution and laws clearly state that Ukraine cannot hold elections while martial law is in effect, and that the Ukrainian government cannot lift martial law while there is a "threat of attack or danger to Ukraine's state independence and territorial integrity."

"Russia and Ukraine cannot hold meaningful talks as long as Russia refuses to recognize Ukraine's negotiating authority. Russian officials disseminated a narrative about the alleged illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government as early as May 17, and ISW continues to assess that these Russian efforts are aimed at setting the stage for Russia to reject any future Ukraine-Russia agreements at a time of Russia's choosing. Any future peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine must include Russia's clear recognition of the legitimacy of Ukraine's president, government and constitution," the piece said.

An equally important prerequisite for effective peace talks is Russia's agreement that ceasefire negotiations should precede negotiations on a peace settlement. Moscow has been repeatedly urged by the US, Europe and Kiev to establish a ceasefire to continue diplomatic negotiations to end Russia's war against Ukraine. However, Russia has consistently rejected this sequence of events as part of an effort to hold any ceasefire talks hostage in order to extract additional concessions from Ukraine and the West.

"ISW continues to assess that Russia seeks to delay peace talks in order to continue advancing on the battlefield. Peace talks before a ceasefire is established would allow Russia to continue advancing in Ukraine, which Russia will likely attempt to use in the Ukraine-Russia talks to extract further concessions. Any future ceasefire will require Russia and Ukraine to engage in separate negotiations to agree on the necessary robust monitoring mechanisms, and mixing ceasefire negotiations with peace talks is likely to delay the implementation of a ceasefire," ISW noted.

And, of course, Russia must demonstrate its willingness to make concessions in any future bilateral negotiations - especially as the Kremlin continually expands its list of demands.

So, Russian officials have called on Ukraine to After the Istanbul meeting, reports emerged that Russia had already begun to strengthen its demands, with Western and Ukrainian sources reporting that the Russian delegation threatened to also seize Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts - two regions that Russia had neither illegally annexed nor claimed - during the May 16 talks in Istanbul.

"This tactic suggests that Russia will make additional, more extreme territorial demands during the negotiations to end the war if Ukraine agrees to Russia's preliminary conditions

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]