"This Race Could Be Russia's Last"

21.05.2025, 19:07
16,398

What Trump's Gold Dome and Reagan's SOI have in common.

US President Donald Trump said that developing a new Golden Dome defense system, designed to protect against long-range missile attacks, will cost $175 billion. The head of the White House believes that the new missile defense system will cover the entire U.S. territory.

How much of this ambitious plan is realistic to realize? For a comment, Charter97.org turned to military expert, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center in Kiev Alexei Melnyk:

- This is a very ambitious plan, and it's one of Trump's campaign promises. He's going to realize it - unlike his other promises, which have already failed. He has shown himself incapable of, among other things, a peaceful resolution; he's put forward rather controversial initiatives, for example, on tariffs. Why did he take this up? Because the first terms when it will be possible to assess the success of the project will come after the end of his presidency-or at least closer to its completion.

According to experts, the minimum realistic term for the realization of the "Golden Dome" is about 10 years, despite Trump's promises to finish in four. It should be understood: this is not so much a question of security as a question of the political interests of the US president himself.

There is another aspect that is actively discussed in the US: how Ilon Musk and his company will be involved in this project. There is an opinion that one of the reasons for the appearance of this initiative is lobbying business interests. Musk expects to make a lot of money from this project. Despite technological caveats, the first funding has already been secured.

It is also important to note: the stated cost of $175 billion may turn out to be underestimated by many times - as is often the case with large-scale projects.

- Can Trump's project be compared to US President Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative, which kicked off the arms race?"

- This is a very apt analogy. Most likely, the first goal of Reagan's initiative was not to start another round of the arms race. At that time it was also declared to increase the level of defense against missile attacks. But in the end, despite the failure as a defense system, this initiative played one of the key roles in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some experts emphasize this.

Another analogy between the Golden Dome and the SOI: the implementation period. Then Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative started in 1983 and was phased out in 1993, having failed to achieve its main goal. There are reasons to doubt that Trump's new initiative will have a different fate.

If we talk about the arms race, the main competitor of the United States today is China. And here the question arises: who is able to withstand such a financial burden?

- Will China and Russia join this race if the new American missile defense system will level the capabilities of their intercontinental missiles?

- An analogy with the Israeli "Iron Dome", which was widely advertised, is appropriate. Its actual test occurred during a mass strike on Israel a few months ago - and it proved vulnerable. Even Iron Dome is penetrated, and no system offers a 100% guarantee of protection.

China is already embroiled in an arms race, regardless of U.S. actions. Beijing avoids any arms limitation agreements until parity with the US is achieved. Therefore, China does not bind itself. The speed of technological progress in China is already comparable to the US, and in some aspects - for example, in space - even outpaces the US. Consequently, China can either offset U.S. efforts or overtake them at some point.

As for Russia, this race could be its last. The last nail in the lid of its economy, if the Kremlin decides to "fall for" this challenge.

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"This Race Could Be Russia's Last"

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