Volodymyr Fesenko: Putin Has Lost His Mind As Early As 2022

Trump's reaction is a mixture of emotion and disorientation.

US President Donald Trump commented on Russia's massive strikes on Ukraine. The head of the White House said that "Putin has lost his mind".

Will the US President's position start to change ? About this site Charter97.org talked to a well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Center for Applied Political Research "Penta" Vladimir Fesenko:

- It's already good that Trump reacted so emotionally. At least he notices Putin's aggression, barbaric actions towards Ukraine. He is an emotional and impulsive person, and his reaction can influence political decisions.

But I would not rush to conclusions. We've already seen from other situations: you can't draw conclusions from one Trump remark. If his position is repeated steadily, then we can talk about the formation of a political line. Emotional reactions are short-term: today he said one thing, tomorrow he will forget and switch. Only if the assessment is consolidated, sounds in different circumstances - it becomes a part of his political position. So far, unfortunately, we don't see that.

It is obvious that Trump once again has doubts about Putin, there is irritation. If it takes hold, then solutions are possible. So far, he has only mentioned that he would consider imposing tariffs against Russia.

If the response to the airstrikes is only to increase tariffs, it is like a pellet to an elephant. It won't have a significant effect because the trade turnover between the U.S. and Russia is minuscule, about $3 billion. The U.S. buys more than it sells. This is not critical for Russia, this is not the Lindsey Graham bill. Now, if you're going to strike a blow, it's going to be through him. He could be a serious tool.

The strongest decision Trump could make is to resume arms shipments to Ukraine. Especially important now are missiles for Patriot systems and other anti-aircraft weapons. As Russia steps up its offensive, artillery shells, which the U.S. has already supplied as part of the Biden administration's decisions, are also important. That would be a powerful signal of support, even if at a cost, but the important thing is that supplies resume.

It would also be a warning to Russia: the Kremlin will not gain a unilateral advantage and cannot win the war. And Putin is hoping for that, assuming the US will cut off aid. America must show that it will not let this scenario materialize. This is where efforts should be focused. This is what Ukraine and European partners should be talking about with the Trump administration.

What is alarming is that while criticizing Putin, Trump simultaneously criticized Zelensky. Perhaps for balance. He's annoyed by the war itself, he criticizes both. Yes, Putin got the brunt of it, but he also criticized Zelensky for allegedly unfairly saying that the U.S. was not responding to the strikes. Perhaps it's just an emotional reaction. Trump doesn't like a lot of things.

Trump's displeasure with Zelensky is disturbing. It suggests that the US is remaining neutral, not taking the position of a full-fledged partner of Ukraine. As Trump himself said in the Oval Office on February 28, the US is "in the middle." This position must be abandoned. Only active pressure on Russia and restoring support for Ukraine will help bring the Kremlin back to the negotiating table and stop the war. It is the weak U.S. position that provokes the escalation of increased Russian aggression.

- Is it possible that Putin's statements about creating a buffer zone and increased missile and drone attacks on Ukraine are a kind of test of Trump's patience? How important are these talks to Putin himself?"

- No, Putin does not need to test Trump's patience. The Kremlin is watching his reactions closely. As soon as Trump starts to speak tough, they again demonstrate their willingness to negotiate.

Russia's strategy is to intensify the war while maintaining a negotiating track with the US. If there is a risk of deteriorating relations with America (especially with Trump) - Russia offers a compromise. Now we can expect that Moscow will again put forward a proposal to end the war - allegedly on Putin's initiative.

The key question is whether Trump's position will change? So far, there are no clear signs. Only an emotional reaction. There are no concrete policy decisions. If sanctions appear, if a bill from the Senate is passed, then we can talk about a change in position. So far, only emotions. Today some, tomorrow others.

Russia is not so much checking Trump as manipulating the situation. Amplifying the war but not refusing to negotiate. Here's the problem. Trump doesn't realize that Russia is both feigning peacemaking and continuing to escalate.

Does his inner circle understand this? Perhaps. But Trump himself doesn't seem to. His illusions are evident in his new remarks. "Putin has lost his mind!" But he went crazy back in 2022, starting a full-scale war. Trump doesn't realize this. His response is a mixture of emotion and disorientation. And that, unfortunately, is inadequate to the scale of what is happening.

- The US Senate is ready for tough sanctions against Russia even without Trump's approval. A new bill that would impose tough sanctions against Russia's allies has received overwhelming support. Its main provision is to impose a 500 percent duty on any country that buys Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products. How realistic is it that these sanctions will be adopted by the U.S. and go into effect? Will they be able to stop Russia?"

- It is unlikely. This is more of a PR exercise than a real tool. The very figure - 500% - speaks to the populist nature of the initiative. Especially now that the US and China have agreed on a 90-day pause in the trade war. No one will introduce such measures because of Russia now.

Another thing is to negotiate with China and India to reduce purchases of Russian oil. This is possible. The US can also agree with Saudi Arabia to increase production. Kazakhstan is already doing this, and OPEC is not happy about it.

Lowering oil prices is a real way to put pressure on Russia. And the bill itself is more PR. I am skeptical about its prospects. But if there are at least some measures to increase sanctions pressure, it will be a signal to the Kremlin.

The most important thing is not even sanctions. The main thing is the resumption of arms supplies to Ukraine.

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